Could tropical development be in the forecast for the Atlantic?
There’s a high potential for tropical development in the eastern Pacific for the last weekend of June, but what about in the Atlantic?
- A low-pressure system may develop over Florida during the Fourth of July weekend, potentially bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
- The system currently has a low chance of tropical or subtropical development within the next seven days.
Planning any outdoor activities in Sarasota or Manatee County this upcoming Fourth of July weekend?
You may want to make backup plans to move things inside.
A disturbance is expected to stall late this week off the southeastern coast of the United States and could lead to the formation of an area of low pressure over Florida by the holiday weekend.
As of 8 a.m. June 30, it had a low chance for tropical or subtropical development, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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The system stretches across Florida, from the northeastern Gulf to the Atlantic waters off the southeastern coast of the United States.
Whether or not a system develops, increased rainfall is expected through the next week.
If you missed it over the weekend, the second named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Barry developed Sunday, June 29 before making landfall in Veracruz, Mexico. By Monday morning, June 30, it had weakened to a remnant low as it continues to bring heavy rain to some areas.
The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Chantal.
Key Information
- Low-pressure system may impact Fourth of July activities in Florida.
- Current tropical development chance is low at 20% over the next week.
- Increased rainfall is anticipated regardless of development.
- Sarasota and Manatee Counties forecast: Partly sunny with a high near 86-87°F, 60-70% rain chance.
- Atlantic hurricane season: June 1 to November 30.
Is a tropical storm or hurricane coming toward Florida?
A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf.
Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, which may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.
Wind shear, which can inhibit development, is expected to be fairly low and ocean water temperatures in the Gulf are above average—conditions that can aid development.
Could tropical system impact Sarasota, Bradenton, Florida over holiday weekend?
This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days; however, it could bring locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and an increased rip current risk along the Gulf or Atlantic Coast later this week, according to the Florida Department of Emergency Management.
“Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop,” DaSilva noted.
Article original publish date: 2025-06-30 07:00:00
Article source: www.heraldtribune.com
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