Forecasters Monitoring Atlantic Developments, Potential Tropical Depression on the Horizon

Key Information

• Four tropical waves are currently being monitored in the Atlantic basin as the 2025 hurricane season progresses.
• The easternmost wave has a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression next week.
• Conditions are improving for storm formation, especially through September.
• Water temperatures in the Caribbean and Gulf are near 90°F, conducive for tropical development.
• Storms forming near land may have less preparation time for residents.

Forecasters are closely monitoring four tropical waves traversing the Atlantic basin as the latter half of the 2025 hurricane season intensifies.

The easternmost wave, currently emerging from Africa’s west coast, carries a 40% probability of strengthening into a tropical depression by early to mid-next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. On Friday morning, the system was observed generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for further development in the coming days.

While meteorologists are keeping a watchful eye on this system, it likely poses no immediate concerns. Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto noted in a Facebook post that even if it develops, most models indicate it would remain over the ocean. “We will monitor.”

The remaining three waves are being watched, but no significant development is anticipated at this time, as reported by AccuWeather. Nonetheless, conditions are becoming more favorable for storm formation as the hurricane season progresses, concluding on November 30.

Dan DePodwin, AccuWeather’s vice president of forecasting operations, explained, “There will be less disruptive wind shear, dry air, and Saharan dust in the main development region next week. The unfavorable atmospheric conditions that have limited tropical development will be easing.” He added that every tropical wave emanating from Africa will be closely monitored as they enter warm waters conducive to tropical development.

One wave is heading west across the eastern Atlantic, while another is moving across the central Atlantic, per NHC reports. Additionally, a tropical wave in the western Caribbean is being observed, described as having “numerous strong convection” moving toward the northwest Colombian coast.

Forecasters are particularly attentive to the western Caribbean and Gulf regions, which are currently experiencing record-high water temperatures, for possible tropical development from September 18 through the month’s end, according to DePodwin.

Experts indicate that water temperatures are approaching 90 degrees in several areas—well above the 80-degree threshold required for tropical storm formation.

“A storm may try to develop and move toward the U.S.,” DePodwin warned. “Due to formation near land, these storms provide coastal residents with shorter preparation time.” He further emphasized, “Any storm entering the Gulf has the potential for rapid intensification due to the record ocean heat content.”

With warm sea-surface temperatures and moist air, the potential for storm development in these regions remains heightened during the latter part of September.