ERIN Remains a Powerful Hurricane

Key Information

• Current Movement: Moving northwest at 8 mph, expected to turn north on Tuesday.
• Storm Status: Undergoing eyewall replacement, increasing in size and wind field.
• Tropical Storm Watch: Issued for the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
• Wind Forecast: 30% chance of 40-50 mph tropical storm force winds in the Outer Banks.
• Impact on Florida: Large swells and rip current warnings from West Palm Beach northward starting late Tuesday.
• Projected Path: High confidence in remaining off the U.S. coastline, threading between the East Coast and Bermuda, moving northeast into the Atlantic.
• Rip Current Risk: Dangerous rip currents expected along the shoreline from Florida to Maine.

It is moving to the NW at 8 mph now and is expected to turn to the north Tuesday.

It has gone through eyewall replacement which means it has gotten bigger. The inner core or eyewall has been replaced by a larger eyewall. When storms do this they expand in overall size and wind field increases significantly.

The National Hurricane Center continues to show a tropical storm watch for the Outer Banks of North Carolina and a storm surge watch as well. That area has a 30% chance of getting low end (40-50 mph) tropical storm force winds on Erin’s latest trajectory.

Large swells will begin to hit the east coast of Florida beginning late Tuesday and continue through Thursday. There is a rip current statement out for the east coast of Florida from W. Palm northward.

It is now moving to the NW and will begin to move to the north on Tuesday staying off of the U.S. coast. This is a high confidence forecast with most models agreeing with this scenario.

It looks like it will thread the needle between the E. coast of the U.S. and Bermuda. It will then continue to move to the NE into the open waters of the Atlantic later this week.

It will cause dangerous rip currents all along the shoreline from Florida to Maine.