SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Despite Erin weakening, it has evolved into a massive storm. Tropical storm winds (35-74 mph) now extend up to 150 miles from the center in every direction.
The storm is still advancing northwest, with a northern turn anticipated late Wednesday. This trajectory is expected to keep the primary core of hurricane winds offshore of North Carolina and the United States. A new advisory has been issued for northeast Florida regarding minor flooding risks associated with Erin and onshore waves reaching up to 11 feet from Daytona to Jacksonville.
A storm surge warning remains in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina. The anticipated storm surge will range from 2-4 feet, while waves of 15-20 feet could lead to significant beach erosion and flooding across the Outer Banks on Thursday and Friday.
Deadly rip currents are expected along much of the east coast of the U.S. starting late Wednesday and lasting through Friday due to this intense storm.
A Tropical Storm Warning is active for much of the Outer Banks of NC, covering areas from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.
Erin’s maximum winds are currently at 105 mph, marking it as a robust category 2 hurricane. Recent satellite images indicate it’s beginning to reorganize, and increases in wind speeds are possible overnight and into Wednesday as it traverses over warm waters.
The most significant impacts from this storm will be severe surf and coastal flooding across much of North Carolina on Thursday and Friday. The storm is predicted to shift northeastward after Friday and weaken as it moves away from the U.S. over cooler waters.
Looking ahead, two tropical waves in the central and east Atlantic are being monitored for potential development. The wave in the central Atlantic has a 60% chance of developing over the coming days, likely following a similar path to Erin and possibly remaining offshore.
The subsequent system, Invest 99L, located off the African coast, is expected to maintain a more westerly trajectory and has a modest chance of developing, at only 30%, over the next few days.
We will keep an eye on this system, but currently, it poses no concern for Florida.
As for our local weather, anticipate isolated showers or thunderstorms on Wednesday due to drier air moving in from Erin. The chance of rain is only 20%.
By Thursday, onshore winds associated with Erin will likely bring coastal showers in the morning and early afternoon, with storms moving inland by late afternoon and evening. This pattern is expected to persist through much of the weekend.
For boaters, winds will be mild at 5-10 mph from the NW/N on Wednesday, with seas around 1 foot or less, resulting in light chop on the waters.
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