Weekend Weather Outlook for the Suncoast During the Holiday

Mornings will generally commence quietly, but by late morning or early afternoon today and Saturday, the activation of the sea breeze will trigger storms that drift inland and return to the coast in the evening. With an abundance of tropical moisture and a stalled front in proximity, the likelihood of rain remains high throughout each day.

This pattern will intensify on Sunday and Monday, bringing repeated downpours that could result in localized flooding. Some storms are expected to linger into the overnight hours near the coast.

Temperatures will start off in the low to mid-90s on Friday, gradually cooling to the upper 80s to around 90 over the weekend as cloud cover and rain increase. Nighttime temperatures will stay warm, hovering in the low to mid-70s. Winds, outside of storm activity, will be light; however, any strong thunderstorm may induce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and intense rainfall.

Some drier weather may arrive in the Suncoast region mid-week next week; however, conflicting information complicates this part of the forecast. Currently, confidence remains low regarding how far south the dry air will extend.

For boaters, surface conditions will be calm, with light winds of 5 to 10 knots and seas around a foot or less. Although the waters may appear inviting, the primary hazards will stem from afternoon and evening thunderstorms that can rapidly generate lightning, choppy seas, and strong gusts. The best prospects for safe boating will occur early in the day before storms develop. It is crucial to stay updated with the latest forecasts over the weekend, as weather conditions may become unpredictable.

Key Information

• Storm Timing: Afternoon storms expected today and Saturday, with continued risk on Sunday and Monday.
• Temperatures: Starting in the low to mid-90s, cooling to upper 80s to around 90 through the weekend.
• Nighttime Low: Warm nights in the low to mid-70s.
• Boating Conditions: Calm seas with light winds; thunderstorms may create hazardous conditions.
• Flood Risk: Possible localized flooding due to heavy downpours, especially Sunday and Monday.
• Forecast Confidence: Low confidence in the arrival of drier weather next week.